When quitting is a good thing

This morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report came in pretty much in line with other economic indicators that suggested a solid finish the 2015 labor market. Most notably, the hires and quits rates saw small upticks in December, a positive sign for an economy continuing to recovery. Unfortunately, those stronger results were somewhat tempered by January’s employment numbers, so the big question will be whether the upticks in today’s report will hold or will return back to their lower values. If these trends continue, it will mean we are still on the road towards full employment. Regardless, we need to stay on that road by encouraging the Federal Reserve to keep their foot off the brakes and encouraging policymakers at all levels of government to abandon austerity in favor of boosting local and state economies through increased investments and public sector employment.

While jobs day brings a whole series of great measures to analyze labor market slack, from the prime-age employment-to-population ratio to nominal wage growth, my favorite indicator on JOLTS day is the quits rate. A high quits rate is important because it means that workers feel confident enough in the economy to quit jobs that are not right for them and search for ones that are. It means a stronger labor market, where job opportunities abound and workers can find a better match. We often talk about all those workers who have been discouraged by economy, who aren’t seeing opportunities for them in the labor market or getting the hours they want. The quits rate is a similar measure. In a stronger economy, we should see the underemployment rate tick down while the quits rate ticks up. As you can see in the figure below, the quits rate has recently been moving up, but it’s still below a fully recovered rate and certainly below a full employment rate.

JOLTS

Hires, quits, and layoff rates, 2000-2016

Month Hires Layoffs Quits
Dec-2000 4.1000000 1.400000 2.300000
Jan-2001 4.4000000 1.700000 2.600000
Feb-2001 4.2000000 1.400000 2.400000
Mar-2001 4.3000000 1.600000 2.400000
Apr-2001 4.0000000 1.400000 2.400000
May-2001 4.1000000 1.500000 2.300000
Jun-2001 3.8000000 1.400000 2.300000
Jul-2001 3.9000000 1.500000 2.200000
Aug-2001 3.8000000 1.400000 2.200000
Sep-2001 3.7000000 1.500000 2.100000
Oct-2001 3.8000000 1.700000 2.200000
Nov-2001 3.7000000 1.600000 2.000000
Dec-2001 3.6000000 1.400000 1.900000
Jan-2002 3.7000000 1.400000 2.200000
Feb-2002 3.7000000 1.500000 2.000000
Mar-2002 3.6000000 1.300000 1.900000
Apr-2002 3.8000000 1.500000 2.100000
May-2002 3.8000000 1.500000 2.100000
Jun-2002 3.7000000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2002 3.8000000 1.500000 2.100000
Aug-2002 3.7000000 1.400000 2.000000
Sep-2002 3.7000000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2002 3.7000000 1.400000 2.000000
Nov-2002 3.8000000 1.500000 1.900000
Dec-2002 3.8000000 1.500000 2.000000
Jan-2003 3.8000000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2003 3.6000000 1.500000 1.900000
Mar-2003 3.4000000 1.400000 1.800000
Apr-2003 3.6000000 1.500000 1.800000
May-2003 3.5000000 1.500000 1.800000
Jun-2003 3.7000000 1.600000 1.800000
Jul-2003 3.6000000 1.600000 1.800000
Aug-2003 3.6000000 1.500000 1.800000
Sep-2003 3.7000000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2003 3.8000000 1.500000 1.900000
Nov-2003 3.6000000 1.400000 1.900000
Dec-2003 3.8000000 1.500000 1.900000
Jan-2004 3.7000000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2004 3.6000000 1.400000 1.900000
Mar-2004 4.0000000 1.500000 2.000000
Apr-2004 3.9000000 1.400000 2.000000
May-2004 3.7000000 1.400000 1.900000
Jun-2004 3.8000000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2004 3.7000000 1.400000 2.100000
Aug-2004 3.9000000 1.500000 2.000000
Sep-2004 3.8000000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2004 3.8000000 1.300000 2.000000
Nov-2004 3.9000000 1.500000 2.100000
Dec-2004 4.0000000 1.500000 2.000000
Jan-2005 3.9000000 1.500000 2.100000
Feb-2005 4.0000000 1.500000 2.000000
Mar-2005 3.9000000 1.500000 2.100000
Apr-2005 3.9000000 1.400000 2.100000
May-2005 4.0000000 1.400000 2.200000
Jun-2005 4.0000000 1.500000 2.100000
Jul-2005 3.9000000 1.400000 2.100000
Aug-2005 4.0000000 1.400000 2.200000
Sep-2005 4.0000000 1.400000 2.300000
Oct-2005 3.7000000 1.200000 2.200000
Nov-2005 3.9000000 1.300000 2.200000
Dec-2005 3.8000000 1.300000 2.100000
Jan-2006 3.8000000 1.200000 2.200000
Feb-2006 3.9000000 1.200000 2.200000
Mar-2006 3.9000000 1.200000 2.200000
Apr-2006 3.8000000 1.300000 2.000000
May-2006 4.0000000 1.400000 2.200000
Jun-2006 3.9000000 1.200000 2.200000
Jul-2006 3.9000000 1.300000 2.200000
Aug-2006 3.8000000 1.200000 2.200000
Sep-2006 3.8000000 1.200000 2.100000
Oct-2006 3.8000000 1.300000 2.100000
Nov-2006 4.0000000 1.400000 2.200000
Dec-2006 3.8000000 1.300000 2.200000
Jan-2007 3.8000000 1.300000 2.200000
Feb-2007 3.8000000 1.300000 2.200000
Mar-2007 3.9000000 1.300000 2.200000
Apr-2007 3.7000000 1.400000 2.100000
May-2007 3.8000000 1.300000 2.200000
Jun-2007 3.8000000 1.300000 2.100000
Jul-2007 3.7000000 1.300000 2.100000
Aug-2007 3.7000000 1.300000 2.100000
Sep-2007 3.7000000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2007 3.8000000 1.400000 2.100000
Nov-2007 3.7000000 1.400000 2.000000
Dec-2007 3.6000000 1.300000 2.000000
Jan-2008 3.5000000 1.300000 2.000000
Feb-2008 3.6000000 1.400000 2.000000
Mar-2008 3.4000000 1.300000 1.900000
Apr-2008 3.5000000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2008 3.3000000 1.300000 1.900000
Jun-2008 3.5000000 1.400000 1.900000
Jul-2008 3.3000000 1.400000 1.900000
Aug-2008 3.3000000 1.500000 1.800000
Sep-2008 3.2000000 1.400000 1.800000
Oct-2008 3.3000000 1.600000 1.800000
Nov-2008 2.9000000 1.600000 1.500000
Dec-2008 3.1000000 1.800000 1.600000
Jan-2009 3.1000000 1.900000 1.500000
Feb-2009 3.0000000 1.900000 1.400000
Mar-2009 2.8000000 1.800000 1.400000
Apr-2009 2.9000000 1.900000 1.300000
May-2009 2.9000000 1.600000 1.300000
Jun-2009 2.8000000 1.600000 1.400000
Jul-2009 2.9000000 1.700000 1.300000
Aug-2009 2.9000000 1.600000 1.300000
Sep-2009 3.0000000 1.600000 1.300000
Oct-2009 2.9000000 1.500000 1.300000
Nov-2009 3.1000000 1.400000 1.400000
Dec-2009 2.9000000 1.500000 1.300000
Jan-2010 3.0000000 1.400000 1.300000
Feb-2010 2.9000000 1.400000 1.300000
Mar-2010 3.2000000 1.400000 1.400000
Apr-2010 3.1000000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2010 3.3000000 1.300000 1.400000
Jun-2010 3.1000000 1.500000 1.500000
Jul-2010 3.2000000 1.600000 1.400000
Aug-2010 3.0000000 1.300000 1.500000
Sep-2010 3.1000000 1.400000 1.500000
Oct-2010 3.1000000 1.300000 1.400000
Nov-2010 3.1000000 1.300000 1.400000
Dec-2010 3.2000000 1.400000 1.500000
Jan-2011 3.0000000 1.300000 1.400000
Feb-2011 3.1000000 1.300000 1.400000
Mar-2011 3.3000000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2011 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2011 3.1000000 1.300000 1.500000
Jun-2011 3.3000000 1.400000 1.500000
Jul-2011 3.1000000 1.300000 1.500000
Aug-2011 3.2000000 1.300000 1.600000
Sep-2011 3.3000000 1.300000 1.500000
Oct-2011 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2011 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Dec-2011 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Jan-2012 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Feb-2012 3.3000000 1.300000 1.600000
Mar-2012 3.3000000 1.200000 1.600000
Apr-2012 3.2000000 1.400000 1.600000
May-2012 3.3000000 1.400000 1.600000
Jun-2012 3.3000000 1.400000 1.600000
Jul-2012 3.2000000 1.200000 1.600000
Aug-2012 3.3000000 1.400000 1.600000
Sep-2012 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Oct-2012 3.2000000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2012 3.3000000 1.300000 1.500000
Dec-2012 3.2000000 1.200000 1.600000
Jan-2013 3.3000000 1.200000 1.700000
Feb-2013 3.4000000 1.200000 1.700000
Mar-2013 3.1000000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2013 3.3000000 1.300000 1.700000
May-2013 3.3000000 1.300000 1.700000
Jun-2013 3.2000000 1.200000 1.600000
Jul-2013 3.3000000 1.200000 1.700000
Aug-2013 3.4000000 1.300000 1.700000
Sep-2013 3.4000000 1.300000 1.800000
Oct-2013 3.3000000 1.100000 1.800000
Nov-2013 3.3000000 1.100000 1.700000
Dec-2013 3.3000000 1.200000 1.700000
Jan-2014 3.4000000 1.300000 1.700000
Feb-2014 3.4000000 1.200000 1.800000
Mar-2014 3.5000000 1.200000 1.800000
Apr-2014 3.4000000 1.200000 1.800000
May-2014 3.4000000 1.200000 1.800000
Jun-2014 3.5000000 1.200000 1.800000
Jul-2014 3.6000000 1.300000 1.900000
Aug-2014 3.4000000 1.200000 1.800000
Sep-2014 3.6000000 1.200000 2.000000
Oct-2014 3.7000000 1.300000 2.000000
Nov-2014 3.6000000 1.200000 1.900000
Dec-2014 3.7000000 1.200000 1.900000
Jan-2015 3.6000000 1.200000 2.000000
Feb-2015 3.6000000 1.200000 1.900000
Mar-2015 3.6000000 1.400000 1.900000
Apr-2015 3.6000000 1.300000 1.900000
May-2015 3.6000000 1.200000 1.900000
Jun-2015 3.6000000 1.300000 1.900000
Jul-2015 3.6000000 1.200000 1.900000
Aug-2015 3.6000000 1.200000 2.000000
Sep-2015 3.6000000 1.300000 1.900000
Oct-2015 3.7000000 1.200000 2.000000
Nov-2015 3.7000000 1.200000 2.000000
Dec-2015 3.8000000 1.200000 2.200000
Jan-2016 3.5000000 1.200000 2.000000
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. The hires rate is the number of hires during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The layoff rate is the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

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In the figure below, we’ve mapped the number of unemployment workers against the number of job openings in each sector. As the labor market gets tighter, we should see some sectors leading the way. Some sectors are doing better in absorbing slack—professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and finance and insurance are showing relatively better prospects. Construction, meanwhile, is consistently a sector where the unemployed outnumber job openings by a large degree. There are about 4.3 unemployed construction workers for each job opening in construction.

JOLTS

Unemployed and job openings, by industry (in millions)

Industry Unemployed Job openings
Professional and business services 0.8936 1.0756
Health care and social assistance 0.6102 0.9106
Retail trade 0.9987 0.5608
Accommodation and food services 0.9018 0.6763
Government 0.5732 0.4967
Finance and insurance 0.1607 0.2545
Durable goods manufacturing 0.4101 0.1965
Other services 0.3405 0.1745
Wholesale trade 0.1363 0.1682
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 0.2753 0.2084
Information 0.1076 0.1057
Construction 0.6237 0.1453
Nondurable goods manufacturing 0.2668 0.1283
Educational services 0.2128 0.0972
Real estate and rental and leasing 0.0864 0.0764
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.1907 0.0675
Mining and logging 0.0840 0.0179
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, these are 12-month averages, October 2014–September 2015.

Source: EPI analysis of data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Current Population Survey

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As the labor market continues to improve we should see wage growth accelerate, perhaps starting with the sectors that appear tighter. Indeed, all of these indicators will tighten as the economy moves towards full employment, as long as policymakers let it get there.