The Fed’s Language May Change This Week—Let’s Hope It Doesn’t Signal Interest Rates Going up Sooner

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week. Word on the street is that they will shift the language they use to describe the likely future path of short-term interest rates. Recently this language has stressed that very low short-term rates are likely to persist for “a considerable time.” The new language may instead stress the need for Fed “patience” with lower rates.

To real-life human beings, of course, parsing such language is an exercise that goes so far beyond splitting hairs it’s absurd.

But it matters. The Fed is the most important economic policymaking institution in the United States right now. They have, by far, the most influence on whether American workers’ hourly wages and living standards will begin rising or not in coming years. If they raise interest rates before genuine recovery from the Great Recession is secured, the hopes for real (inflation-adjusted) wage increases for the vast majority of Americans will be torpedoed. And, this switch from “considerable time” to “patience” will be interpreted as inflation hawks on the Fed who want to see an earlier interest rate increase gaining a small patch of intellectual territory.

Does surrendering this small patch of rhetorical territory actually mean that rates will begin rising faster than they would have otherwise? I have no idea.

One could argue that because the unemployment hawks still have the majority—and that majority includes the incredibly influential Chair Janet Yellen and Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer—that a rapid return to higher interest rates remains hugely unlikely. In this view, the small rhetorical surrender could actually be a strategic play to give the inflation hawks some small-but-mostly-meaningless victory to claim and that this will actually make it harder for them hawks to demand yet more movement in the near term.

I hope so, because a fact-based judgment is clear: there is no sign of wage-push inflation on the horizon, because there is still an enormous amount of slack that needs to be taken up before a genuine recovery can take hold. Seen in light of these facts, it should be a long time before the Fed should enjoy the enormous luxury of worrying about too-rapid wage growth.

The best metric demonstrating the remaining amount of slack is the cumulative shortfall of nominal hourly wages versus what these wages would’ve been had the Great Recession not bent their trajectory steeply down.

Nominal Wage Tracker

Mind the wage gap: Cumulative nominal average hourly earnings, actual and hypothetical if they had grown at 4% since the recession began, 2007–2014

Actual average hourly earnings of all private employees  Hypothetical, assuming 4% growth* 
Jan-2007 $20.6
Feb-2007 20.68
Mar-2007 20.77
Apr-2007 20.83
May-2007 20.88
Jun-2007 21
Jul-2007 21
Aug-2007 21.04
Sep-2007 21.07
Oct-2007 21.11
Nov-2007 21.16
Dec-2007 21.21 $21.21
Jan-2008 21.24 21.27943602
Feb-2008 21.31 21.34909936
Mar-2008 21.4 21.41899075
Apr-2008 21.42 21.48911096
May-2008 21.51 21.55946071
Jun-2008 21.56 21.63004078
Jul-2008 21.63 21.7008519
Aug-2008 21.73 21.77189484
Sep-2008 21.76 21.84317036
Oct-2008 21.81 21.91467922
Nov-2008 21.92 21.98642218
Dec-2008 21.98 22.0584
Jan-2009 21.99 22.13061346
Feb-2009 22.05 22.20306333
Mar-2009 22.08 22.27575038
Apr-2009 22.11 22.34867539
May-2009 22.12 22.42183914
Jun-2009 22.15 22.49524241
Jul-2009 22.19 22.56888598
Aug-2009 22.26 22.64277064
Sep-2009 22.26 22.71689718
Oct-2009 22.32 22.79126639
Nov-2009 22.37 22.86587906
Dec-2009 22.38 22.940736
Jan-2010 22.42 23.015838
Feb-2010 22.45 23.09118586
Mar-2010 22.47 23.1667804
Apr-2010 22.5 23.24262241
May-2010 22.54 23.31871271
Jun-2010 22.54 23.3950521
Jul-2010 22.6 23.47164142
Aug-2010 22.64 23.54848146
Sep-2010 22.68 23.62557306
Oct-2010 22.74 23.70291704
Nov-2010 22.74 23.78051422
Dec-2010 22.77 23.85836544
Jan-2011 22.86 23.93647152
Feb-2011 22.86 24.0148333
Mar-2011 22.88 24.09345161
Apr-2011 22.93 24.17232731
May-2011 23 24.25146121
Jun-2011 23.02 24.33085419
Jul-2011 23.11 24.41050707
Aug-2011 23.08 24.49042072
Sep-2011 23.12 24.57059599
Oct-2011 23.22 24.65103372
Nov-2011 23.2 24.73173479
Dec-2011 23.22 24.81270006
Jan-2012 23.25 24.89393038
Feb-2012 23.3 24.97542663
Mar-2012 23.37 25.05718968
Apr-2012 23.4 25.1392204
May-2012 23.41 25.22151966
Jun-2012 23.47 25.30408836
Jul-2012 23.52 25.38692736
Aug-2012 23.51 25.47003755
Sep-2012 23.58 25.55341983
Oct-2012 23.56 25.63707507
Nov-2012 23.64 25.72100419
Dec-2012 23.71 25.80520806
Jan-2013 23.75 25.8896876
Feb-2013 23.79 25.9744437
Mar-2013 23.81 26.05947727
Apr-2013 23.86 26.14478921
May-2013 23.89 26.23038045
Jun-2013 23.98 26.31625189
Jul-2013 23.97 26.40240445
Aug-2013 24.03 26.48883905
Sep-2013 24.06 26.57555662
Oct-2013 24.09 26.66255808
Nov-2013 24.15 26.74984435
Dec-2013 24.17 26.83741638
Jan-2014 24.22 26.9252751
Feb-2014 24.29 27.01342144
Mar-2014 24.32 27.10185636
Apr-2014 24.33 27.19058078
May-2014 24.38 27.27959567
Jun-2014 24.45 27.36890197
Jul-2014 24.46 27.45850063
Aug-2014 24.54 27.54839261
Sep-2014 24.53 27.63857888
Oct-2014 24.57 27.7290604
Nov-2014 24.66 27.8198381

 

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Nominal wage growth consistent with the Federal Reserve Board's 2 percent inflation target, 2 percent productivity growth, and a stable labor share of income.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series

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As we explain here, the trend nominal wage path we sketch in this figure is one consistent with the Fed’s deeply conservative 2 percent inflation target (which they have, of course, missed on the low side more often than not in recent years). And yet nominal wage growth in recent years has been far too long even to be consistent with this low inflation target.