A disappointing jobs report overall

This morning’s employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy added 160,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent, while the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) ticked down. Nominal hourly wage growth held its recent trend, coming in at 2.5 percent over the year.

Payroll employment growth of 160,000 is notably slower than recent months. Even with the downward revisions to March, job growth looks slower than first quarter of this year (averaging 203,000) or last quarter of 2015 (averaging 282,000). While it is true that as the economy reaches full employment, job growth would be expected to slow, we are not nearly close enough to full employment to view this slow down as a positive move. Given that the first quarter GDP numbers came in so weak as well (0.5 percent annualized), it’s unlikely April’s low growth is a data blip that will be significantly revised upwards.

April payroll employment growth disappoints

Date Average monthly growth in non-farm payroll
Q4 2015 282
Q1 2016 203
April 2016 160
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

The LFPR had been ticking up for several months but unfortunately it dipped down in April, from 63.0 percent to 62.8 percent. Zeroing in on prime-age workers (ages 25-54 years old), their LFPR also fell in April, from 81.4 percent to 81.2 percent. These trends are directly reflected in a pick-up in the number of missing workers, which increased to 2.5 million in April. If the unemployment rate included these workers, who would be employed or looking for work if the labor market were stronger, it would be 6.5 percent, as opposed to the official rate of 5.0 percent. In general, labor force participation has been on the rise (and the number of missing workers has been falling) so hopefully this is just a one-month blip in the data and next month we will continue will the more promising trends.

The prime-age EPOP fell in April as well, from 78.0 percent to 77.7 percent. As with the LFPR, the overall trend has been promising and hopefully will continue in upcoming months. Historically, the prime-age EPOP is still quite low, below its 2007 peak of 80.3 percent, and substantially below its 2000 peak of 81.9 percent. An even more troubling benchmark for April’s 77.7 percent prime-age EPOP is that it remains below the worst of the last two business cycles (78.1 percent in 1993).

Jobs Day

Employment-to-population ratio of workers ages 25-54, 1989-2016

Employment-to-population ratio
Jan-1989 80.0
Feb-1989 79.9
Mar-1989 79.9
Apr-1989 79.8
May-1989 79.8
Jun-1989 79.8
Jul-1989 79.8
Aug-1989 79.9
Sep-1989 80.0
Oct-1989 79.9
Nov-1989 80.2
Dec-1989 80.1
Jan-1990 80.2
Feb-1990 80.2
Mar-1990 80.1
Apr-1990 79.9
May-1990 79.9
Jun-1990 79.8
Jul-1990 79.6
Aug-1990 79.5
Sep-1990 79.4
Oct-1990 79.4
Nov-1990 79.2
Dec-1990 79.0
Jan-1991 78.9
Feb-1991 78.9
Mar-1991 78.7
Apr-1991 79.0
May-1991 78.6
Jun-1991 78.7
Jul-1991 78.6
Aug-1991 78.5
Sep-1991 78.6
Oct-1991 78.5
Nov-1991 78.4
Dec-1991 78.3
Jan-1992 78.4
Feb-1992 78.2
Mar-1992 78.2
Apr-1992 78.4
May-1992 78.4
Jun-1992 78.5
Jul-1992 78.4
Aug-1992 78.4
Sep-1992 78.3
Oct-1992 78.2
Nov-1992 78.2
Dec-1992 78.2
Jan-1993 78.2
Feb-1993 78.1
Mar-1993 78.2
Apr-1993 78.2
May-1993 78.5
Jun-1993 78.6
Jul-1993 78.6
Aug-1993 78.8
Sep-1993 78.6
Oct-1993 78.7
Nov-1993 79.0
Dec-1993 79.0
Jan-1994 78.9
Feb-1994 78.9
Mar-1994 78.9
Apr-1994 79.0
May-1994 79.2
Jun-1994 78.8
Jul-1994 79.1
Aug-1994 79.2
Sep-1994 79.6
Oct-1994 79.6
Nov-1994 79.8
Dec-1994 79.8
Jan-1995 79.7
Feb-1995 80.0
Mar-1995 79.9
Apr-1995 79.8
May-1995 79.7
Jun-1995 79.5
Jul-1995 79.7
Aug-1995 79.6
Sep-1995 79.8
Oct-1995 79.8
Nov-1995 79.7
Dec-1995 79.7
Jan-1996 79.8
Feb-1996 79.9
Mar-1996 79.9
Apr-1996 79.9
May-1996 80.0
Jun-1996 80.1
Jul-1996 80.4
Aug-1996 80.5
Sep-1996 80.4
Oct-1996 80.6
Nov-1996 80.5
Dec-1996 80.5
Jan-1997 80.5
Feb-1997 80.4
Mar-1997 80.6
Apr-1997 80.7
May-1997 80.6
Jun-1997 80.9
Jul-1997 81.1
Aug-1997 81.3
Sep-1997 81.1
Oct-1997 81.1
Nov-1997 81.0
Dec-1997 81.0
Jan-1998 81.0
Feb-1998 81.0
Mar-1998 81.0
Apr-1998 81.1
May-1998 81.0
Jun-1998 81.0
Jul-1998 81.1
Aug-1998 81.2
Sep-1998 81.3
Oct-1998 81.1
Nov-1998 81.2
Dec-1998 81.3
Jan-1999 81.8
Feb-1999 81.5
Mar-1999 81.3
Apr-1999 81.3
May-1999 81.4
Jun-1999 81.4
Jul-1999 81.2
Aug-1999 81.3
Sep-1999 81.3
Oct-1999 81.5
Nov-1999 81.6
Dec-1999 81.5
Jan-2000 81.8
Feb-2000 81.8
Mar-2000 81.7
Apr-2000 81.9
May-2000 81.5
Jun-2000 81.5
Jul-2000 81.3
Aug-2000 81.1
Sep-2000 81.1
Oct-2000 81.1
Nov-2000 81.3
Dec-2000 81.4
Jan-2001 81.4
Feb-2001 81.3
Mar-2001 81.3
Apr-2001 80.9
May-2001 80.8
Jun-2001 80.6
Jul-2001 80.5
Aug-2001 80.2
Sep-2001 80.2
Oct-2001 79.9
Nov-2001 79.7
Dec-2001 79.8
Jan-2002 79.6
Feb-2002 79.8
Mar-2002 79.6
Apr-2002 79.5
May-2002 79.4
Jun-2002 79.2
Jul-2002 79.1
Aug-2002 79.3
Sep-2002 79.4
Oct-2002 79.2
Nov-2002 78.8
Dec-2002 79.0
Jan-2003 78.9
Feb-2003 78.9
Mar-2003 79.0
Apr-2003 79.1
May-2003 78.9
Jun-2003 78.9
Jul-2003 78.8
Aug-2003 78.7
Sep-2003 78.6
Oct-2003 78.6
Nov-2003 78.7
Dec-2003 78.8
Jan-2004 78.9
Feb-2004 78.8
Mar-2004 78.7
Apr-2004 78.9
May-2004 79.0
Jun-2004 79.1
Jul-2004 79.2
Aug-2004 79.0
Sep-2004 79.0
Oct-2004 79.0
Nov-2004 79.1
Dec-2004 78.9
Jan-2005 79.2
Feb-2005 79.2
Mar-2005 79.2
Apr-2005 79.4
May-2005 79.5
Jun-2005 79.2
Jul-2005 79.4
Aug-2005 79.6
Sep-2005 79.4
Oct-2005 79.3
Nov-2005 79.2
Dec-2005 79.3
Jan-2006 79.6
Feb-2006 79.7
Mar-2006 79.8
Apr-2006 79.6
May-2006 79.7
Jun-2006 79.8
Jul-2006 79.8
Aug-2006 79.8
Sep-2006 79.9
Oct-2006 80.1
Nov-2006 80.0
Dec-2006 80.1
Jan-2007 80.3
Feb-2007 80.1
Mar-2007 80.2
Apr-2007 80.0
May-2007 80.0
Jun-2007 79.9
Jul-2007 79.8
Aug-2007 79.8
Sep-2007 79.7
Oct-2007 79.6
Nov-2007 79.7
Dec-2007 79.7
Jan-2008 80.0
Feb-2008 79.9
Mar-2008 79.8
Apr-2008 79.6
May-2008 79.5
Jun-2008 79.4
Jul-2008 79.2
Aug-2008 78.8
Sep-2008 78.8
Oct-2008 78.4
Nov-2008 78.1
Dec-2008 77.6
Jan-2009 77.0
Feb-2009 76.7
Mar-2009 76.2
Apr-2009 76.2
May-2009 75.9
Jun-2009 75.9
Jul-2009 75.8
Aug-2009 75.6
Sep-2009 75.1
Oct-2009 75.0
Nov-2009 75.2
Dec-2009 74.8
Jan-2010 75.1
Feb-2010 75.1
Mar-2010 75.1
Apr-2010 75.4
May-2010 75.1
Jun-2010 75.2
Jul-2010 75.1
Aug-2010 75.0
Sep-2010 75.1
Oct-2010 75.0
Nov-2010 74.8
Dec-2010 75.0
Jan-2011 75.2
Feb-2011 75.1
Mar-2011 75.3
Apr-2011 75.1
May-2011 75.2
Jun-2011 75.0
Jul-2011 75.0
Aug-2011 75.1
Sep-2011 74.9
Oct-2011 74.9
Nov-2011 75.3
Dec-2011 75.4
Jan-2012 75.5
Feb-2012 75.6
Mar-2012 75.7
Apr-2012 75.7
May-2012 75.7
Jun-2012 75.6
Jul-2012 75.6
Aug-2012 75.7
Sep-2012 75.9
Oct-2012 76.1
Nov-2012 75.8
Dec-2012 75.9
Jan-2013 75.6
Feb-2013 75.8
Mar-2013 75.9
Apr-2013 75.9
May-2013 76.0
Jun-2013 75.9
Jul-2013 76.0
Aug-2013 75.9
Sep-2013 76.0
Oct-2013 75.6
Nov-2013 76.0
Dec-2013 76.1
Jan-2014 76.5
Feb-2014 76.5
Mar-2014 76.6
Apr-2014 76.5
May-2014 76.4
Jun-2014 76.8
Jul-2014 76.7
Aug-2014 76.8
Sep-2014 76.8
Oct-2014 76.9
Nov-2014 76.9
Dec-2014 77.1
Jan-2015 77.2
Feb-2015 77.3
Mar-2015 77.2
Apr-2015 77.2
May-2015 77.2
Jun-2015 77.2
Jul-2015 77.1
Aug-2015 77.2
Sep-2015 77.3
Oct-2015 77.2
Nov-2015 77.4
Dec-2015 77.4
Jan-2016 77.7
Feb-2016 77.8
Mar-2016 78.0
Apr-2016 77.7
ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Source: EPI analysis of  Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public data

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Wage growth held steady at 2.5 percent, in line with the past few months and slightly stronger than last week’s employment cost index report. Most observers believe that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June—given that wage growth is below any reasonable target, this is a prudent move. Working people and their families are keenly aware of the fact that strong wage growth continues to be the lagging indicator in this recovery. Beyond fighting inflation (which is nowhere in sight), there’s little reason for the Fed to use interest rate hikes to control asset bubbles, so there’s no incentive for a rate increase in the near future.

We need to return to steady increases in LFPR and see stronger wage growth for a sustained period of time before we can say we’re nearing full employment and a healthy economy.